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Are We Verging on Another Escalation in the Middle East? | Ali Vaez

October 19, 2026
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Hidden Forces

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In Episode 503 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ali Vaez, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Crisis Group and a closely watched analyst of Iran's foreign and nuclear policy, about where the war between Iran and the United States stands eight months after the start of Operation Epic Fury, how Iran has turned its control of the Strait of Hormuz into a tool for pressuring the global economy, what the conflict has cost Washington, Tehran, and their allies, and why the window for a durable diplomatic resolution may be closing.

The first hour establishes the state of play eight months into the war, including:

  1. How the war has metastasized into a wider regional confrontation involving the Houthis in Yemen and attacks on Saudi Arabia.

  2. What the fighting has cost the United States militarily, from a significant depletion of its missile interceptor stockpiles to the loss of several regional bases.

  3. How the war has reshaped Iran's internal politics, economy, and society.

  4. Why coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv appears to be breaking down.

The second hour examines:

  1. How the US and its Gulf allies have kept oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran's blockade.

  2. How Iran's national security doctrine has shifted since the war began.

  3. The state of the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions.

  4. The degradation of Western intelligence networks inside Iran and its consequences.

  5. What a durable security architecture for the Middle East will require.

  6. Whether the Trump administration has the credibility to end the war or if it will be left up to a future administration.

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

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Episode Recorded on 10/14/2026